The forecast for back to school shopping is looking bleak for retailers. This year, numbers are predicted to decrease by 7.7% for elementary and high school purchases.

According to the National Retail Federation’s 2009 Back to School Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, the average family with students in grades Kindergarten through 12 is expected to spend $548.72 on school merchandise, a decline of 7.7 percent from $594.24 in 2008. 

This year’s back-to-college and back-to-school spending combined will total $47.50 billion.

Is it any surprise that many people will shop the sales? Maybe not. This morning, I heard this information on the radio and a suggestion was made to buy school supplies at office supply stores instead of drug and discount stores. Buying school supplies at one place will not save you any money. Some stores are advertising “loss leaders” to get you in the store for a short while. Case in point, CVS offered two pocket folders for 5¢, limit 10 with your store card just for the first three days of the sale. After that, the folders would be 50¢ each. Target had Crayons on sale but the price wasn’t advertised.

Even if there is a list of school supplies, go through and see which things are optional and which you definitely need. Buying everything at one place was never an option when I was a child. We always shopped the sales. Now that people are using money more wisely, it is vital to bundle errands, have someone else (a relative or friend) buy some to get around purchase limits – unless you are buying alcohol children can make purchases as well.

Unless there is a sign that says no rainchecks – ask for one. Or if there is supposed to be a shipment coming in at another time, ask when the store will get the shipment and restock the shelves. Occasionally there are more items in back, stores may wait to put them out until after the sale has ended or only receive a small shipment. Go early when items are on sale (if you can) – don’t wait until Friday to shop for items listed in the Sunday circular, many products will already be sold out.

Hunting for back to school bargains will be more of a necessity this year than ever. Looking around and starting early will give you a greater chance of getting the best deals.

Ponzi schemes. When things sound too good to be true, they usually are. Even if someone is a friend, check out what they are telling you.

Bernie Madoff received the maximum sentence for his crime. Yet, his incarceration won’t bring back the life savings to those that he bilked out of millions of dollars.

He apologized.

“I live in a tormented state for all the pain and suffering I created,” Madoff said. “I left a legacy of shame. It is something I will live with for the rest of my life. Saying I’m sorry is not enough. I turn to face you. I know it will not help. I’m sorry.”

The Securities Investor Protection Corporation already has over $61 million in claims made by nearly 9,000 Madoff investors. The SIPC will also pay up to $500,000 for eligible claimants who lost money to Madoff.  The SIPC works with a trustee in the even that a brokerage firm fails and owes money to investors.  Hardship cases are also being given priority and their claims are being expedited.

The worst part about this is that with so many people out of work, it is possible that there are more similar illegal schemes like multi-level management and Ponzi schemes just looking for more gullible folks to participate. The unemployed need to be wary of “great opportunities” offered by a company seeking salespeople for their products and require that you bring in more people to sell or asking you to refer friends to a great opportunity.

When something is great or horrible you want to tell your friends. It is when things are mediocre that you say nothing. When you have a great experience anywhere you tell others – a great return of your income or a great chance to make more money. Good or bad, check it out.

Investigate on your own, if something doesn’t seem right even if it legitimate, then don’t go any further with a “job opportunity” or investment.  Investments are not mandatory, they are optional. When you want to work and have been out of work for a while, some work opportunities seem great – this does not mean that they are legitimate. With investments, the best option is not to put all of your money into one type of account. Nothing is certain and sincere is are many way that people have spent their money. For a job opportunity ask how much you have to spend in order to get a position. If you are required to recruit a certain number of people or do something that you are uncomfortable with, leave the opportunity.

But by the spring of 2008, the financial world seemed to be coming undone, unemployment was rising, and among the fashionistas, cheap was the new black. [Lew] Frankfort and his executives reconsidered. They agreed it was time to create a more “youthful energy” for the brand. “This was an attitude we felt we were missing,” says Frankfort.

Higher end companies and brands are lowering prices to attract customers. Coach has announced a new line of products that cost less, so has J. Crew and Vera Wang. The items are still costly but  seemingly more affordable.

At a certain point, there is a price threshold that demands more. When you spend $200 for a television set you have a certain set of expectations, but when you spend $1000 or $2000 for a television set there are a different set of expectations. The same applies when you are buying an item that is not a necessity.

Cheap can be a pejorative term. Buying a fashion item cheap is equated in my mind with a fad or a trend. Just because something is popular now doesn’t mean that it will always be fashionable. Spending a small amount of money on something that you may use for a short time because it is cheap is generally wasteful. There are exceptions to this rule, but when it comes to spending upwards of $200 or $300 on an item, for most people this amount makes people pause.

If companies are lowering the cost of the items they are selling in order to gain more customers, is it possible that the prices were too exorbitant to begin with?  A person who might not blanch at spending $300 for a handbag may have difficulty spending $1000 for a handbag, or have greater expectations. At $300, will the style be fashionable in two years?  What if you find an item that will be fashionable, but not trendy that costs $450 is that a better investment? Maybe investment would be a difficult term to use but a well-crafted durable item that will still be in style after a few months is definitely worth the price.

Are a you a fan of just charging it all and then paying the bill when it comes? According to CreditCards.com that may be damaging your credit score. Not only where you buy but what you buy seems to have an impact on a credit card company’s profile of spenders. Prior to the new credit card law, companies would  use the information about your purchases to lower your spending limit.

This made me reflect on two young ladies I saw making purchases of less than $15 at a thrift store. Would that purchase reflect on their credit score or spending habits? The only time I spend less than $15 on a credit card happens when a large department store has a special sale and you get an additional percentage off of any purchase made with the store’s credit card.

Cash on the other hand for certain purchases is hard to trace. Granted, if you are making a small purchase and you have a problem with an item, you would be less likely to be upset about a faulty $15 dollar item than you would for a faulty $150 or $1500 dollar item.

Where and how much you spend with your credit card, gives credit card companies an accurate picture of who you are – at least through your purchases. If you only use your purchases for certain items, then they have a flawed picture. But if you use cash for many of your purchasesthen credit card companies will have a skewed picture of you.

For an example of what types of purchases will affect your credit score, try the interactive shopping cart. Certain purchases decrease your score considerably, while other seemingly innocuous purchases will raise your score considerably.

You can’t always pay for items with cash, especially online purchases but if you are prudent in your spending with your credit card, then your score and credit limit may suffer less.

Here are a few interesting articles and websites.

• Charitable Giving Declines

I could have told you that since instead of junk mail, I have been getting pleas via snail and email from organizations I have never donated to, donated to in the past or never knew existed.

• Russian Recession Plagued Town Revolts

This is what happens when a quarter of your town is out of work overnight – they protest.

• Fewer Foreclosures in May

The number is still very high.

• Go BYO.com

This is a listing for area restaurants that allow you to bring your own wine. Even if you order the least expensive glass on the menu, that can still be about half the price of your entree. The site lists corkage fees and lets you search by location. There are BYO sites for 10 US cites.

Fed up with the Recession?
Bad news… saving and cutting back may have been a fad for some. Spending less on everything isn’t flying with some people.

• You Can Still Retire Rich

Short version: work, continue to save, start saving if you haven’t already. Also, did I mention you may have to work well into your 60s? You’ll have more money though.

• How the US Surplus became a Deficit

HINT: The current president’s predecessor’s policies had a lot to do with it.