The forecast for back to school shopping is looking bleak for retailers. This year, numbers are predicted to decrease by 7.7% for elementary and high school purchases.

According to the National Retail Federation’s 2009 Back to School Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, the average family with students in grades Kindergarten through 12 is expected to spend $548.72 on school merchandise, a decline of 7.7 percent from $594.24 in 2008. 

This year’s back-to-college and back-to-school spending combined will total $47.50 billion.

Is it any surprise that many people will shop the sales? Maybe not. This morning, I heard this information on the radio and a suggestion was made to buy school supplies at office supply stores instead of drug and discount stores. Buying school supplies at one place will not save you any money. Some stores are advertising “loss leaders” to get you in the store for a short while. Case in point, CVS offered two pocket folders for 5¢, limit 10 with your store card just for the first three days of the sale. After that, the folders would be 50¢ each. Target had Crayons on sale but the price wasn’t advertised.

Even if there is a list of school supplies, go through and see which things are optional and which you definitely need. Buying everything at one place was never an option when I was a child. We always shopped the sales. Now that people are using money more wisely, it is vital to bundle errands, have someone else (a relative or friend) buy some to get around purchase limits – unless you are buying alcohol children can make purchases as well.

Unless there is a sign that says no rainchecks – ask for one. Or if there is supposed to be a shipment coming in at another time, ask when the store will get the shipment and restock the shelves. Occasionally there are more items in back, stores may wait to put them out until after the sale has ended or only receive a small shipment. Go early when items are on sale (if you can) – don’t wait until Friday to shop for items listed in the Sunday circular, many products will already be sold out.

Hunting for back to school bargains will be more of a necessity this year than ever. Looking around and starting early will give you a greater chance of getting the best deals.

I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger, in a cartoon this was cute. For a state in the 21st Century it’s not. California’s budget woes will make the state start handing out IOUs. This is a very dire situation. People who depend on that money can’t give their creditors IOUs. What can they tell their creditors or utilities? We can’t pay you because we’re not getting my money. Even though the money isn’t directly for government salaries the vendors who deal with the state won’t receive payments which are used for salaries and their own business expenses.

Some states are notoriously slow in making payments to vendors but regular workers always had priority. Who will be next if the state won’t be able to pay its creditors? Furlough days for government workers is the pejorative buzzword that has been going around. The small vendors and businesses that aren’t getting money from the state will contribute to the further decline in the money problems.

If an agreement is reached before 4 p.m. CST then the IOU would just be nothing more than a bad dream. Otherwise, those who deal with the state of California as a customer may have to face some budget woes of their own.

The state’s long-term bond rating is in jeopardy, as well. It already has the worst credit rating in the nation.

Fitch Ratings last week downgraded the state’s long-term general obligation bonds to A-, from A, and placed them on a negative ratings watch, signaling the company’s concern about California’s ability to solve its liquidity crisis.

Just like individuals, those with the worst credit ratings have to pay more to borrow money which will cost the taxpayers more in the long run.

Poor Ruth Madoff.

Bernie Madoff’s wife is now crying broke because she has been stripped of all but $2.5 million in assets. In New York her duplex apartment was worth $7 million.

The fascination with money and its excesses are intriguing. Last week, I read an article about the lack of skilled trade workerswho are needed and the positions pay $22 an hour which would be over $45k a year. Additionally there were other engineering positions that employers were having difficulty filling which paid $50k+ a year. In the East, people were crying that you can’t afford anything on that wage. While in other parts of the country $45-50k annually might not get you into a fancy country club but you wouldn’t be broke either.

How far money will go depends on your location in the country. Real estate prices in larger coastal cities may be higher than in the middle of the country, though decent homes in good neighborhoods can still be had for people making $50k a year.

Mrs. Madoff who was allegedly not a part of her husband’s business dealings still gets to keep five times more than the maximum payment that claimants may receive toward their investment losses.

In most parts of the world, $2.5 million dollars does not make you poor. In a relative sense when you had more and lost the majority of your holdings, then a paltry $2.5 might seem like a poverty level when compared to $65 million or more. Yet, for people who lost their live savings to leave with $2.5 seems like a dream.

Ruth Madoff’s salon and florist (among others) no longer want her business, so she may not have to worry about her $2.5 going very fast. Some buildings don’t even want her to live there, so her millions may go a lot farther than originally thought. If people can survive on $50k a year, R.M. should be able to do it as well.

Be a pest.

When you notice that something in wrong on your bank statement or credit card statement, politely ask for an inquiry. Sometimes you may have to ask twice but ti will work. Two months ago I found fraudulent charges on a credit card statement, then I found double billing from a company I actually placed an order with. The fraudulent charges, I had to place an inquiry twice, but while the charges were being investigated, I didn’t have to pay interest on those and checked frequently to see how the status of the inquiry was going.

The squeaky wheel gets the grease. Persistence pays off, but politeness along with assertiveness helps. An overly aggressive person can escalate a situation and make it difficult to get someone to help you.

Assertiveness and aggressiveness are two sides of the same coin but can evoke reactions from different ends of the spectrum. A polite assertive person might be able to get a situation rectified in their favor. An aggressive person who seems to be a bully or boorish (think ugly American) may not be able to have a situation resolved in their favor.

Assertive behavior also deals directly with the person or company that can resolve the issue. You may feel aggravated by having to repeat a situation but by maintaining a pleasant demeanor and you will be able to have your situation resolved. Recent situations where people called 911 because of problems in fast food restaurants or other retailers indicates that shoppers weren’t using assertiveness, they were being aggressive.

Complain to the right person. Generally, the cashier or first person you speak to isn’t the person who can help you, if you have a serious issue. Ask to speak to a supervisor. Keep asking until you get the right person to help you. When calling on the phone, take notes including the time you called, and the name of the representative. Ask for what you want – a refund, a repair, a new item. You may not get it but by asking politely, you are closer to getting what you want than if you are aggressive and get angry quickly.

Telling your problem to someone who cannot help you, such as on an anonymous complaint site does nothing to resolve your problem. Using the sites will help warn others of potential problems, but many situations are different.

If you are delinquent on your credit card bill, it may not be Monty Hall calling to make a deal, it may be your credit card company.

The delinquency rate on credit cards has risen, as have calls from credit card companies to people with high balances. Companies are trying to make deals with people in order to get something rather than nothing.

Even with settling for less than the entire amount, there are still high balances around.

“Revolving credit, a close approximation of credit card debt, totaled $939.6 billion in March. The Federal Reserve reported that 6.5 percent of credit card debt was at least 30 days past due in the first quarter, the highest percentage since it began tracking the number in 1991. The amount being written off was also at peak levels.”

Credit brings a different dimension to this recession.  The unemployed and under-employed do not have as much to lose. When you aren’t making any money, your wages can’t be garnisheered. This does not mean forgoing payment. Although no one can say, yet, how taking a deal from a credit card company will affect your future credit or credit score.